German far-right surge raises doubts about Berlin’s support for Ukraine

london — The future of German military aid to Ukraine and support for Ukrainian refugees in Germany are being called into question after a surge in support saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party emerge victorious Sunday in elections in the state of Thuringia.

The AfD won with 32.8% of the vote, ahead of the Christian Democrats with 23.6%. The newly formed far-left BSW party was in third place with 15.8%. The AfD came in second in the neighboring state of Saxony, just behind the Christian Democrats.

Björn Höcke, the AfD leader in Thuringia, said it was a “historic victory.”

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win. And today, dear friends, we have won!” Höcke told cheering supporters Monday in the eastern town of Erfurt.

It’s the first state victory for Germany’s far right since World War II.

Rival parties, however, have vowed not to work in coalition with the AfD, meaning complex coalition talks could lie ahead for control of the state legislature.

Although widely predicted, the results have shocked many of Germany’s allies – not least Ukraine. Germany is Ukraine’s second-biggest donor of military aid, behind the United States. That is now in doubt, said Mattia Nelles, co-founder of the German-Ukrainian Bureau, a political consultancy based in Düsseldorf.

“Both the far-right and the far-left populist forces were campaigning on cutting German aid for Ukraine, and they were explicitly calling for a reduction in military aid,” Nelles told VOA. “They called on the government to finally pressure Ukrainians to start negotiating with Russia. They were for pressuring Ukraine into submission. And that is very unfortunate for Ukraine to have these very vocal forces gaining traction in these regional elections.”

In the short term, Nelles said the state election results won’t affect the federal government’s funding of aid to Ukraine, “but you already see a slight change in the rhetoric of the centrist parties [toward Ukraine]. We have four centrist parties, and some of them already took some of the narratives or the frames that the populist and far-right parties were using,” he added.

Germany is set to hold nationwide federal elections next year.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the liberal Free Democratic party – part of the ruling coalition – is pushing for aid to Ukraine to be halved in the next budget. His party gained less than 5% in the Thuringia state election and fears a repeat in the 2025 federal elections, noted analyst Liana Fix of the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

“[They] are afraid that they will not get into parliament, which has happened already once before, that they were not able to cross the 5% threshold for the German parliament. So it’s really a sort of a fight, a battle for political survival, especially for the liberals who are pushing for this agenda of cutting the budget for Ukraine,” Fix said.

Immigration was a major issue driving votes for the far right, with much rhetoric directed at non-European, and especially Muslim, migrants. Germany, however, is also hosting more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees – and the financial cost was under the spotlight during the state election campaigns of both the far right and far left, said analyst Nelles.

“They were both – though on separate notes, different tonalities – campaigning on lesser aid or cutting of aid for Ukrainian refugees in Germany. The question whether and how they should be funded and whether they should be drafted or sent to Ukraine – that is a delicate issue,” Nelles said.

“We have males, Ukrainian males, that are legally eligible for the draft. So, there is growing pressure also on the male Ukrainian refugee population in Germany to push them back to Ukraine,” he added. “Germany is unable for good reasons to send males back to Ukraine. But the pressure on the government to do so is growing.”

The federal government has given no indication that it intends to cut support for Ukrainian refugees or send them back to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last month that Berlin would support Kyiv with military aid “as long as necessary.”

Scholz’s Social Democrat Party highlighted Monday that German intelligence services had classified the AfD as an extremist party and said its victory in Thuringia must act as a “wake-up call.”
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