Bulgarians’ 7th vote in 3 years unlikely to break political deadlock

SOFIA, Bulgaria — Bulgarians were voting Sunday in the seventh general election in more than three years with little hope that a stable government will be formed to stop the country’s slide into political instability. 

Voter fatigue and disillusionment with politicians have created an environment where radical political voices, aided by Moscow’s widespread disinformation, are successfully undermining public support for the democratic process and boosting the popularity of pro-Russian and far-right groups. 

The never-ending election spiral has a serious impact on Bulgaria’s economy and its foreign policy. The country risks losing billions of euros in EU recovery funds because of the lack of reforms. Full integration into the open-border Schengen area and joining the eurozone are likely to be delayed further. 

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. local time Sunday. Initial exit poll results will be announced after polls close at 8 p.m., and preliminary results are expected on Monday. 

According to latest opinion polls, Bulgarians’ lack of confidence in elections will result in record low voter turnout. Gallup World Poll data show only 10% of Bulgarians trust the integrity of their elections, the lowest proportion in the EU, where the average is 62%. 

Some observers have called the past few years a period of “revolving-door governments,” which has additionally fueled voters’ apathy. 

There was no clear winner in the latest vote, held in June, and the seven groups elected to the fragmented legislature were unable to put together a viable coalition. Observers suggest that Sunday’s vote will produce more of the same. 

These early elections are not expected to break a protracted political stalemate, Teneo, a political risk consultancy, said in a report last week. 

Although former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB party is set to win a plurality of seats, it will likely struggle to form a majority government in a fragmented parliament, Teneo predicted. 

“As a result, a technocratic government or another early election are the most likely outcomes. Political instability and a surging budget deficit are key challenges to Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone,” the consultancy said. 

The Balkan country of 6.7 million has been gripped by political instability since 2020, when nationwide protests erupted against corrupt politicians that had allowed oligarchs to take control of state institutions. 

Bulgaria is one of the poorest and most corrupt European Union member states. Attempts to fight graft are an uphill battle against an unreformed judiciary widely accused of serving the interests of politicians. 

Despite a fall in support for GERB in recent elections, it is tipped to finish first with a quarter of the votes. It will be a hard task for Borisov, however, to secure enough support for a stable coalition government. 

Analysts believe that the main pro-Russia party in Bulgaria, Vazrazhdane, could emerge as the second-largest group in parliament. The far-right, ultra-nationalist and populist party demands that Bulgaria lift sanctions against Russia, stop helping Ukraine, and hold a referendum on its membership in NATO. 

The reformist, pro-EU We Continue the Change/Democratic Bulgaria bloc is likely to come in third. 

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which traditionally represented Bulgaria’s large ethnic Turkish minority, recently split into two rival factions, one around party founder Ahmed Dogan, and the other behind U.S.-sanctioned businessman and former media tycoon Delyan Peevski. Both factions are likely to enter parliament, gaining between 7% and 9% each. 

Up to four smaller groups could also pass the 4% threshold for entering parliament, which would even more complicate the forming of a government.
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